Another disappointing performance in Week 16 puts me right on the edge when it comes to my season goals (+65 percent winners, +52 percent ATS).
I'll do the final computations later. This week all I'm shooting for is one last round of predictions. I want 11-5 on winners and 10-6 spread picks, but let's face it: Week 17 is a crapshoot, and I've been in a slump for two weeks.
My advice: If you don't have to bet this week, just don't.
WEEK 15 REPORT:
WINNERS:8-8 (.500); SEASON: 147-79 (.656)
ATS: 7-9 (.437); SEASON: 119-105(.531)
ATS BEST BETS: 1-1; SEASON: 21-20 (.512)
So Week 15 was a pride smackdown for yours truly: Lots of upsets around the league, and I did a poor job of spotting them.
With two weeks to go, my season goals (above .650 on winners, above 52 percent against the spread) are right on the edge. It could go either way, and with Week 17 always so screwy, I could sure use a good week after last week's disaster.
WEEK 14 REPORT:
WINNERS: 12-4 (.750); SEASON: 139-71 (.662)
ATS: 9-7 (.562); SEASON: 112-96 (.538)
ATS BEST BETS: NA; SEASON: 20-19 (.513)
Since somebody asked about it last week (and since I happen to be on vacation instead of my usual working-two-jobs and balls-to-the-wall state), I'm filing these picks on Wednesday.
Had another decent week picking winners, and my 9-7 against the spread was a touch better than my season average of .538. Which should tell you something about the tenuous nature of my campaign against the Vegas line: I'm only three games ahead of the .520 profitability threshold.
WEEK 13 REPORT:
WINNERS: 10-6 (.625); SEASON: 125-67 (.651)
ATS: 5-11 (.312); SEASON: 103-89 (.536)
ATS BEST BETS: 0-3; SEASON: 20-19 (.513)
SUNDAY UPDATE: I picked only two upsets this week and one of those (Bears over Redskins) is already wrong. I'll be shocked if favorites go 14-1 over the next two days, but c'est la vie. That's why I pick games before I look at the Vegas line.
Unlucky Week 13 was my least confident week of the season, and with good reason: while I scraped out a 10-6 record on winners, I took a pounding in Vegas, finishing below .500 against the spread. As I said last week, I was happy to break even on winners (10-6), but failing to do so on the ATS picks was a blow to my ego.
But before we move on to this week's picks, I want to look back at the things I was wrong about in Week 13, because I think it's educational:
PATRIOTS (C/F): Yes, I got the win, but c'mon: I didn't predict this win correctly in any sense beyond dumb luck, and I expect better if I'm ranking a game in the Confident category. Doesn't count against me statistically, but I know better.
BRONCOS (NBTF/BB/F): I can't explain this one. They lost 34-20.
REDSKINS (JG/F): The Redskins controlled the game crumbled in the final minute behind a head-scratching coaching performance and lost by a point.
49ERS (JG/U): I picked the upset, but Vinny played well and Dilfer played horribly.
BROWNS (JG/U): Even with Fitzgerald out, the Cardinals just outplayed the Browns.
BEARS (JG/U): My upset prediction looked solid through about 50 minutes of football and was in play up to the final seconds.
SAINTS (JG/BB/F): Every sign pointed towards a Saints win. Instead, they laid an egg at home against a replacement QB.
For the record, favorites went a stellar 12-4 this weekend, and even though I picked only four upsets, I picked the wrong ones (my upset picks went 1-3). Vegas wisdom wins this round, big-time.
But can I say I was unlucky? No, not really. Sure, chance is always in play, but when I look back at the week I see only three games that really came down to a coin flip (Patriots, Giants and Bills), and I went 1-2 in those outcomes. That's not unlucky -- that's just a week-to-week wobble.
Fantasy Karma!
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